Research

Working Papers

2026

1. The Dynamic Impact of Refugee Immigration on Native Workers

   Katia Gallegos Torres, and Katrin Sommerfeld

   2026

   Revise and resubmit, The Economic Journal.

   Abstract PDF

   We study the effects of low and medium-skilled refugee immigration on natives’ labor market outcomes. Using individual-level panel data on the German workforce for 2011–2019 and exogenous regional variation from processing authorities’ distances, we find that a larger inflow of refugees to a district increases the probability of full-time employment. Fewer outflows of employment drive this effect. The yearly estimates suggest positive labor demand responses in the short run—in occupations that supply services to the refugees—and positive labor supply effects in the medium run—in manufacturing occupations. Finally, we find null effects on wages, the task composition of jobs, and job changes but positive mobility responses.

2. The Labor Market Impact of the Energy Crisis: Evidence from Germany

   Katia Gallegos Torres, and Jakob Lehr

   2026

   Revise and resubmit, Journal of Political Economy Microeconomics.

   Abstract PDF

   This paper studies the impact of the 2022 energy price shock on German manufacturing using newly available administrative data. We construct a Bartik-type exposure measure based on pre-shock energy use and relate it to worker-, establishment-, and region-level outcomes. We find no evidence of adverse employment effects. Instead, we document negative wage effects: moving from the 25th to the 75th percentile of the exposure distribution implies an average annual wage loss of about 2.5% in 2022-2023. Wage effects are substantially larger for new hires, with evidence of spillovers to other sectors in local labor markets.

3. Perceptions of Migration and Integration: The Role of Regional Context and Migrants’ Origin

   Paul Berbée, Marvin Brinkmann, Katia Gallegos Torres, and 3 more authors

   2026

   Revise and resubmit, PNAS Nexus.

   Abstract

   A compelling set of evidence documents severe misperceptions of the native population about the number and integration of migrants. Using two experimental studies, we show that these misperceptions are not universal but depend on the context in which migration is considered. Study 1 shows that natives’ migration and integration perceptions vary by the regional level on which these are elicited. While misperceptions are large at national and regional levels, respondents hold more accurate perceptions of migrant numbers and their integration at the local level. In study 2, we show that misperceptions about the labor market integration vary with the country of origin of the migrant. Overall, these results suggest that scholars interested in (mis)perceptions about migrants should pay close attention to the context from which they derive their findings and policy conclusions. Misperceptions are much more nuanced than previously thought.

4. The Downfall of Assad: Syrian Refugees’ Settlement Intentions after the Unexpected Regime Change

   Luisa Hammer, Kamal Kassam, Yuliya Kosyakova, and 4 more authors

   2026

   Revise and resubmit, PLOS One.

   Abstract PDF

   On December 8, 2024, the sudden collapse of Bashar al‑Assad’s regime, abruptly changed Syria’s political landscape and reshaped the return prospects for millions of Syrians living abroad. We exploit this unanticipated regime change as a natural experiment to estimate the causal impact of homeland developments on refugees’ settlement and return intentions. Drawing on novel survey data from Germany, launched just days before Assad’s fall, we find that the regime collapse significantly affected the expressed settlement intentions of Syrians in Germany. Respondents interviewed afterward were more likely to express temporary settlement intentions, more likely to report emigration considerations, and more likely to express uncertainty about their future in Germany. However, we find no effect on concrete short‑term emigration plans, suggesting that increased return aspirations reflect forward‑looking intentions rather than immediate behavioral change. Further analyses shows that legal security in Germany and weaker social or emotional integration correlate with a stronger preference for temporary stay.

5. Settlement, Return, or Onward Migration? An Intersectional Perspective on Migration Decisions

   Katia Gallegos Torres, Agnieszka Kanas, and Yuliya Kosyakova

   2026

   Submitted. Draft available upon request.

   Abstract

   Out-migration is a central yet understudied dimension of migration processes, with important implications for labor supply, integration trajectories, and population composition. This paper examines how out-migration intentions vary across migrant groups and how economic ties, socio-cultural embeddedness, and transnational ties are associated with return and onward migration. Using recent data on immigrants in Germany, the analysis shows that out-migration intentions are shaped by multiple mechanisms rather than a single dominant factor. Socio-cultural embeddedness is the strongest correlate of lower mobility, whereas economic resources and transnational ties have more heterogeneous associations. Return and onward migration are linked to distinct configurations of attachments, and these patterns vary systematically by gender and migration motive. Men are more likely to report onward migration, and economic migrants exhibit higher overall mobility than family migrants and refugees. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of distinguishing between forms of mobility and moving beyond purely economic explanations to better understand migrant retention and mobility dynamics.

2024

1. Opportunities or Benefits: Local Conditions and Refugee Labor Market Integration

   Katia Gallegos Torres, Valentin Wett, and Andreas Steinmayr

   2024

   Abstract PDF

   We jointly analyze the effects of variations in labor demand and the generosity of welfare benefits at the time of receiving protection on the labor market integration and location choice of refugees. Due to a series of reforms, initially, exogenously dispersed refugees face substantial differences in benefit levels and labor demand - but are free to move after receiving protection. Higher labor demand increases employment rates, while higher benefits have a small negative effect. These effects last for 2.5 years. However, both shocks persistently affect internal migration. Finally, changes in benefit levels have larger effects on employment when labor demand is high.

2. Uneven Rules: The Struggle for Refugee Family Reunification

   Katia Gallegos Torres, Valentin Wett, and Andreas Steinmayr

   2024

   Abstract PDF

   We examine a policy change for family reunification of refugees. The policy strongly restricted family reunification for subsidiary-protected refugees and allowed convention refugees to apply without those restrictions only immediately after receiving protection. Regular family reunification almost stopped for subsidiary-protected refugees. However, we find suggestive evidence of an almost offsetting increase in irregular family reunification. Convention refugees expedited their reunifications and overall increased the likelihood of sponsoring family members. Moreover, we find positive labor market effects for convention refugees but not for subsidiary-protected ones.

Publications

2023

1. The 2015 refugee inflow and concerns over immigration

   Katia Gallegos Torres

   European Journal of Political Economy, 2023

   Abstract Bib PDF

   How did the large asylum-seeker inflow to Germany in 2015 affect concerns about immigration? Using individual-level panel data for the years 2012–2018 and a policy that allocates asylum-seekers to districts, I identify the effect of exposure to asylum-seekers. In line with the contact hypothesis, living in a high refugee migration district reduced concerns about immigration by 3 pp. Alternatively, a 1 pp. increase in the share of asylum-seekers in the population reduced these concerns by 3.4 pp. The effect appears larger for right-leaning respondents and is driven by districts that do not host a large reception centre. However, the overall trend indicates that after 2015 concerns about immigration increased by about 21 pp. and support for extreme right-wing parties by about 1.7 pp. These trends show considerable heterogeneity for different demographic groups.

   @article{gallegos2023,
     title = {The 2015 refugee inflow and concerns over immigration},
     author = {Gallegos Torres, Katia},
     journal = {European Journal of Political Economy},
     volume = {78},
     pages = {102323},
     year = {2023},
     publisher = {Elsevier},
     kind = {Publications},
     doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2022.102323},
   }

2022

1. The civic engagement and social integration of refugees in germany

   César Barreto, Paul Berbée, Katia Gallegos Torres, and 2 more authors

   Nonprofit Policy Forum, 2022

   Abstract PDF

   Civil society has played an important role in meeting the challenges of refugee migration in recent years. This commentary documents the importance of civic engagement for the integration of refugees by linking individual survey data on refugees to a regional measure of civic engagement in Germany. Using the density of newly established civic associations at the county level as a measure of civic engagement, we exploit regional differences in civic engagement in order to estimate its association with refugee integration outcomes. We find that in regions with particularly high levels of civic engagement, refugees have significantly more frequent contact to Germans, higher life satisfaction, and better German language skills. This correlation is robust to regional contextual factors such as the local population structure, economic strength, and the state of the labor market. In terms of language acquisition, women and refugees with a low level of education benefit the most from high civic engagement. Moreover, refugees with university degrees find significantly better-paying jobs in areas with higher civic engagement. However, no direct correlation could be established between civic engagement and the likelihood that refugees are employed. Nonetheless, the results suggest that support from civil society translates into improved access to government benefits. Our findings highlight that local civic engagement is an important complement to public assistance services and policy makers should give a high priority to partnering with the civil society to improve refugees’ integration outcomes.

Work in Progress

2025

1. The Geography of Inventors and Local Knowledge Spillovers in R&D

   Brian Fujiy C., and Katia Gallegos Torres

   2025

   Based on Brian’s 2022 JMP.
2. Minimum Wages and Migrants’ Labor Market Outcomes

   María Gertrudis Fernández Maciá, and Katia Gallegos Torres

   2025

   Maria’s JMP.

2024

1. Voters’ Willingness to Pay for Non-Economic Policy Issues: Pocketbook voting Revisited

   Katia Gallegos Torres, Martin Lange, and Elias Naumann

   2024

Other

2022

1. 18 Jahre EU-Osterweiterung: Wo Osteuropäer/innen in Deutschland arbeiten

   Katia Gallegos Torres, Katrin Sommerfeld, and Julia Bartel

   2022

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2. Regionale Verteilung russischer Communities in Deutschland

   Katia Gallegos Torres, and Katrin Sommerfeld

   2022

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